The Long Road to a (Not So) Shocking Choice
In recent months, Bangladesh was reported to be torn between Dassault Aviation’s Rafale and the Eurofighter Typhoon, eyeing these European warplanes to breathe new life into its combat fleet. At present, the Bangladeshi Air Force depends on about thirty Chengdu F-7s (the Chinese take on the classic Soviet MiG-21) and a modest handful of Russian-designed MiG-29s. You could say it was high time for an upgrade—and for a while, it seemed the Rafale had the upper hand.
For a short stretch, odds-makers declared the Rafale a winner: local media suggested Dhaka considered picking up four pre-owned Rafales from the French Air and Space Force’s inventory, with an eye on an additional eight, upgraded to the F4 standard. However, the regime change that happened in August 2024—after Bangladesh’s Prime Minister skipped over to India—seemed to have thrown cold water on any Rafale dreams, cooling negotiations with Paris.
Next up in the race was the Typhoon, championed by Leonardo. In May, the Bangladeshi Air Force Chief of Staff, General Hasan Mahmood Khan, jetted off to Italy to see Leonardo’s facilities and attend live demonstration flights for the European combat jet. By September, after a meeting with the Italian ambassador in Dhaka, Khan was openly talking up enhanced military ties between Bangladesh and Italy. That same month, acting Prime Minister Muhammad Yunus (yes, the « father » of microcredit) gave his government’s tentative green light to shopping for multirole fighters plus air defense systems.
Enter the J-10CE: China’s (Not So) Secret Weapon
But then, plot twist! A third contender—the Chengdu J-10CE, already flying in China and Pakistan—leapfrogged its European rivals. Buzz about this outcome started after Yunus’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in March. As if that wasn’t enough, Beijing’s posturing against the Rafale (especially after that brief Indo-Pakistani conflict in May) surely didn’t hurt the Chinese bid.
While official confirmation still awaits, Bangladesh’s interim government is preparing to release $2.2 billion in funding (spread over a decade) for new fighters—a pressing need, as their fleet of Chengdu J-7 aircraft is not just aging gracefully, but downright ancient.
As reported by the Dhaka Tribune, the acquisition committee « will review the draft agreement, assess the feasibility of buying jets directly from the Chinese government or its chosen agency, and negotiate key terms covering maintenance, training, spare parts, and payment arrangements. »
But in the words of retired general ANM Muniruzzaman, president of the Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies:
« Tensions between the United States and China must be carefully weighed before finalizing the purchase. However, Bangladesh’s need for modern fighter jets is undeniable. »
The J-10CE isn’t just flashy brochure material. Building on a late-1990s design, the J-10CE comes equipped with an active antenna radar, an electronic warfare suite, and a Shenyang WS-10B engine (pulling a taut 135kN with afterburner and thrust vectoring, for the aviation nerds in the crowd). It can carry PL-15 and PL-10 air-to-air missiles.
Politics, Dollars, and Delicate Diplomacy
Was it ever realistic for France to sell a few Rafales to Bangladesh at the risk of ruffling India’s feathers—India being both their best Rafale customer and prospect? Let’s remember, the relationship between Bangladesh and India isn’t exactly smooth flying. Plus, could Bangladesh even afford such a pricey jet? The same goes for the Typhoon (which is, if anything, even more expensive).
When it comes to patchwork defense deals, paradoxes abound. How about the planned Rafale sale to Serbia—a country with tense ties to both Croatia (a Rafale client) and the wider European community, and which uses Chinese air defense systems? Does that not risk exposing Rafale secrets to not just China, but also Russia? All this for just 12 aircraft—it’s a tough sell to justify.
These issues have surfaced elsewhere, from Qatar and India (with their proximity to Pakistan’s access through partnerships) to the Turkey/Greece dilemma (with the Greeks training alongside Qatari pilots).
Budget, once again, rears its ugly head. The truth is, many air forces opt for single-engine fighters—cheaper to buy and maintain—over « theoretically perfect » jets with limited armament options. Negotiations often revolve around who gets access to the most effective radars and missiles, not just the fanciest airframe on offer.
Dollars Make the (Warbird) World Go Round
Turns out, many agree Bangladesh made a pragmatic choice. Chalk it up to price and politics: the J-10CE arrived with a deal Dhaka simply couldn’t refuse. Bangladesh edges closer to Beijing for security (if not geographic) reasons, reinforcing its ties to a powerful neighbor while China wins an ally flanking India.
A quick survey of countries buying single-engine fighters tells the story:
- Gripen E/F: Thailand (4 + 8 ordered), Brazil (36), Colombia (18), Sweden (60), Peru/Philippines/Ukraine considering
- F-16V: Bulgaria, Slovakia, Taiwan, Bahrain, Morocco, and more modernizations
- J-10: China, Pakistan, Bangladesh—plus Indonesia interested
- JF-17: Pakistan, Azerbaijan, Myanmar, Nigeria
- Su-75: India, Vietnam, Iran, Nigeria, and others interested
- Tejas/Tejas Mk2: India, and potentially Brazil, DR Congo
Clients often care less about legacy or prestige than about getting up-to-date radars and the right mix of air-to-air, cruise, anti-radiation, and anti-ship missiles (preferably with very long reach), sometimes even strapped onto an « old clunker » of a jet, instead of buying the supposed best in class with restricted weapons.
Regional Currents and Geopolitical Ripples
Bangladesh is sandwiched between major players and complex regional dynamics. The shift to China for new jets is, for many, no surprise. With India watching nervously—especially as the corridor of Siliguri and the Bay of Bengal coast separate much of mainland India from its northeastern « seven sisters » states (Assam, etc.)—the strategic chessboard is lively. China’s interests span Bangladeshi ports and even airbase access, tightening the net around the subcontinent.
Meanwhile, domestic politics and ethno-religious tensions in both Bangladesh and India highlight the complexity behind even a simple airplane order. Bangladesh’s security priorities, economic constraints, and desire to balance reliance on Delhi against Beijing’s strategic courtship all play a role.
Ultimately, for France and Dassault, there’s no existential crisis here—there are other (far larger) fish to fry. India remains a top Rafale customer, with prospects for even more sales on the horizon. Bangladesh, possibly a future strategic competitor (or adversary) of India, is hardly the market to lose sleep over.
And sometimes, when you can’t quite reach those grapes, maybe you just say, « They’re too green anyway—let someone else have them. »
John is a curious mind who loves to write about diverse topics. Passionate about sharing his thoughts and perspectives, he enjoys sparking conversations and encouraging discovery. For him, every subject is an invitation to discuss and learn.
